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Human behavior in extreme situations: the sinking of the Titanic

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In economics assumes that human Behavior is determined by incentives. Individuals respond to relative price changes and align their actions to the existing restrictions. However, these mechanisms play in extreme situations in which - one could argue - the "true nature of human nature" reveals a role?

this question, researchers tried to Bruno S. Frey with the help of an empirical study to clarify. It should be examined with econometric methods to survive what factors influence the likelihood of the sinking of a ship have. The simultaneous consideration of these factors, the effect of each variable ceteris paribus - that is, all other factors remain constant - to be identified.

will consider the well-documented disasters aboard the Titanic (1912) and the Lusitania (1915), in each of which died about two thirds of the passengers. Despite many similarities between the two accidents, the researchers can adhere to different influences on the survival probability: The sinking of the Titanic have social norms ("Women and children first") and the social status of the passengers clearly an influence. are also among different nationalities different survival rates found, whereas the physical strength is no advantage. The sinking of the Lusitania play class and gender differences of no importance. The most important influence on survival occurs in the accident clearly shows the physical power, as people between the ages of 16 and 35 a distinct advantage.

How can the researchers explain these results? In their view, playing the different time restriction, which prevailed in the two accidents, the greatest role: The Titanic sank slowly during 2 h 40 min, and long was not clear whether the ship would go really. For this reason broke do not get a panic on board, and the social norms and the social status of the passengers continued to play a role. The sinking of the Lusitania, which exploded in part, lasted only minutes, however 18th In the outbreak of chaos and state standards were not followed and people were fighting for their lives selfishly. The physical strength and the ability to swim to survive the certain probability. Researchers can thus show that even in crisis situations, the behavior of the people of the existing restrictions - is determined - the time until the fall.

The results of the study, however, must be critically examined: As far been examined only two disasters and compared the results found are not really generalizable. Another problem also represents the opportunity to see that in the econometric analysis of disasters is an important variable and thus not been isolated. This would ceteris paribus assumption injured and could lead to severe distortion of the results. An additional criticism is that the behavior is explained to the passengers only ex pos t and it would be possible, other explanations for the observed differences to lead.

Despite these criticisms, the study based on the novel idea of applying the economic approach to the explanation of human behavior during a shipwreck, great scientific success. Regardless of some shortcomings regarding the scientific precision is the study of great relevance and provides a possible starting point for deeper research.

(Image: Lusitania, source: wikipedia.org).